Commentary: Taiwan Independence No Easy Thing (I) (8/13/2002)


On August 11, Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui simultaneously attended the meeting marking the first anniversary of the establishment of Taiwan Solidarity Union. In his speech at the meeting, Lee Teng-hui said: Going all out to push the "rectification of the name of Taiwan" and advocating a more extensive use of the name of "Taiwan" in the future to make it different from "China", the abbreviated form of the name of the People's Republic of China. Sources say that Taiwan "foreign ministry" staff indicated that Taiwan had united with countries with which it had "diplomatic ties" to again apply for joining the United Nations in the name of the "Republic of China (Taiwan)". This is an attempt to further split China.

Since the emergence of the theory "each side is a country", although Taiwan authorities have cancelled the "Shark" military exercises originally scheduled to be held in Hualien in the eastern part on August 15, so as to avoid "international misunderstanding", on the other hand, however, this move was taken out of security consideration. It is reported that Taiwan "defense ministry's" cancellation of the military exercises aims to ensure that the western part of Taiwan would have sufficient armed forces for deployment and war preparation so as to avoid unbalanced deployment of military forces under the circumstance of the emergence of eventuality. Even if that were the case, once Taiwan declared "independence", its geographical features and resource conditions determine that in regard to Taiwan militarily it is not easy to defend but hard to attack, but rather it is easy to be besieged and difficult to sustain, easy to attack but hard to defend.

Isolated on the Sea, Taiwan Is Easy to Be Blockaded and Paralyzed The Taiwan region encompasses Taiwan proper and the surrounding Penghu Islands, Lanyu Island, Ludao Island, Diaoyu Island as well as Jinmen (Quemoy) Island and Mazu (Matsu) Island on the coast of Fujian Province, with a total area of 36,000 sq. km. Taiwan and Fujian face each other across the sea, the nearest section is only 130 km. Beside very little air transport, Taiwan relies mainly on ocean shipping for its foreign communications.

Although Taiwan has many natural harbors, the main ones are Kaohsiung, Keelung and Taichung ports, the cargo handling capacities of these three major ports account for over 90 percent of those of all Taiwan's harbors. Such a structure does not reveal its defects in peace times, but from the perspective of military strategy, there exist major hidden troubles. If war breaks out, the three ports will be destroyed or blockaded, then Taiwan's foreign communications will basically be paralyzed, and Taiwan's economy, highly dependent on foreign countries, will experience a drastic fall, Taiwan people's daily necessities will face a situation of shortage. From the angle of military technology, it is highly possible that the three major ports will be blockaded or completely destroyed, as long as a few missiles are fired or a certain number of mines are discharged, it is possible to achieve the aim of destroying or blockading the three ports.

Then, if water transport is blockaded or destroyed, can Taiwan make up shipping service by air transport? If Taiwan is blockaded, it is certain that it is put under a war state, and it is unlikely that its shipping service is made up by foreign air transport. Furthermore, Taiwan has only 15 civil airports that can service for take-off and landing, it has only two international airports-Taoyuan and Kaohsiung, so its transport capacity is extremely limited.

Narrow Space Makes It Hard to Win in Decisive Battle The area of Taiwan Island's high mountains and hills makes up over two-thirds of its total area, and its east-west is narrow and south-north is slander. Such a topography makes it hard to carry out large-scale military shift and movement and is thus unfit for large formation warfare. In recent years, Taiwan's military has adopted flexible operational strategy, reduced its military scale, changed its military operation unit from division into joined brigade. Although this strategy facilitates the mobile and flexible reaction of troops, when large-scale landing operation breaks out, this scattered small formation operation of combat forces will perhaps be destroyed one by one and finally suffer utter defeat. If Taiwan declares "independence" and thus causes the outbreak of cross-Strait war, with its topographical features and small formation method of operation, it is difficult for Taiwan to win victory in anti-landing operation.

At the same time, due to the narrow area of the Taiwan region, the relatively concentration of its military and civil targets, plus its proximity to the Chinese mainland, at war times, these relatively concentrated and near targets are vulnerable to attacks in various forms and from various directions and will quickly be damaged and destroyed, making it hard to preserve its strengths for second attack and for a decisive battle. On the other hand, war needs battlefields, it all the more needs space for outflanking operations, whereas Taiwan Island has limited area, few level grounds and lacks rooms for strategic elasticity and maneuvers, Taiwan cannot but decide a battle ahead of time or is compelled to fight a decisive battle, this is unfavorable to preserve its strengths and seek a best opportunity for winning victory.

Penghu Islands Area:a Natural Bridge for Assaulting Fortified Position Located near the side of Taiwan across the Taiwan Straits, Penghu Islands are composed of Penghu Island itself and the surrounding 64 islands, has a total area of 126 square km. The eastern part of Penghu Island neighbors Yunlin County of Taiwan proper separated only by a strip of water and is only over 60 km away from the county; its western part faces Xiamen city of Fujian Province across the sea, the biggest distance is less than 100 km. There are mainland-type ports built on Penghu Island, Baisha Island and Yuweng Island, large boats can hug the shores; there is an airport on Penghu Island capable of allowing the take-off and landing of large airplanes; Penghu also has a reservoir rich in freshwater resources.

The strategic position of Penghu Islands has always been very important. Early mainland immigrants from the coastal areas of Fujian and Guangdong provinces all arrived at Penghu by boat after staying a short time and gaining supplies, they landed from the beaches of the western part of Taiwan proper. The Chinese government's first effective management over Taiwan was exercised also through Penghu. Back on the years during the reign of Emperor Qiandao of the Southern Song Dynasty (1127-1275), the Chinese government sent troops to Penghu to patrol the area. In 1292, the government of Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368) set up a patrol inspection department there to take charge of the affairs of Penghu and Taiwan. In 1683, the Qing government under Emperor Kang Xi unified Taiwan by first attacking and seizing Penghu and then from Penghu captured Taiwan, thus realizing the unification of the two sides of the Straits.

If war breaks out between the two sides of the Straits because of "Taiwan independence", after the Chinese mainland seizes Penghu Island, a wide breach will seem to have been made in the defense of the Taiwan proper. Because it takes the navy force less than two hours' time to march forward from Penghu Island and at most 10 minutes for the air force to fly from Penghu to Taiwan Island, the long-range artillery of the land force can reach the western beaches of Taiwan Island to cover the landing troops. (to Be Continued)